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Mozo Live: Two of the Big Four banks signal 'super-sized' rate cut in May

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From hold to bold: NAB, ANZ and others predict RBA could double down in May

Several economists and financial institutions, including two of the Big Four banks, are forecasting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a 50 basis point (0.50%) cut to the cash rate at its next monetary policy meeting on May 20, reducing the rate from 4.10% to 3.60%.​

Here’s who's tipping a ‘super-sized’ rate cut next month:

  • National Australia Bank (NAB) anticipates a 50 basis point cut in May. The bank projects further reductions, expecting to reach 2.60% by February 2026.
  • ANZ won't rule out a 50 bp cut in May , “if sentiment sours and the global growth outlook deteriorates sufficiently”, aiming for 3.35% by August 2025.
  • AMP chief economist Shane Oliver has acknowledged the possibility of a 50 basis point cut in May but does not advocate for an emergency reduction.
  • Deutsche Bank initially forecast a 50 bp cut but adjusted its prediction to a 25 basis point reduction in May after recent developments in U.S. trade policy. 
  • The ASX RBA Rate Indicator shows market participants are pricing in a significant probability of a 50 basis point cut at the May meeting.

However, earlier this week RBA governor Michele Bullock downplayed the likelihood of any drastic rates’ move, saying it was still “too early” to determine the path for interest rates amidst global uncertainty.

If you're holding out for a rate cut, maybe it's time to ask yourself why, when you can give yourself one by comparing and shopping around.

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